AI might take over some jobs, but it will also make new ones. This technology can handle boring tasks, giving workers more time for creative work.
The newest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) talks about the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (genAI). It’s like a story of both good and bad times.
According to the IMF, the world is at the edge of a technological revolution that could improve things by increasing productivity, helping global growth, and raising incomes worldwide. However, AI and genAI might also take away jobs and make inequality worse.
The IMF did a study on AI and jobs, and the results are surprising. It says almost 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected by genAI. It might be even higher in advanced economies like the US and Europe, around 60%. This could lead to more income inequality, where wages drop, but companies benefit from AI productivity.
Even though the study shows worrisome trends, about half of the jobs influenced by AI and genAI could actually become more productive. However, for the remaining 50%, genAI tools might take over tasks currently done by people, reducing the need for workers, lowering wages, and resulting in fewer job opportunities. In extreme cases, certain jobs might vanish.
The study acknowledges that many previous studies have predicted job replacement by AI. However, it emphasizes that AI is likely to work together with humans in many cases. The IMF analysis considers both these possibilities. If the gains in productivity are significant, it could lead to increased income for most workers. In this changing scenario, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets should concentrate on updating regulations and aiding workforce reassignment while protecting those who may be negatively impacted.
High-end jobs could be affected
In the past, automation and IT usually affected routine tasks, but AI is different because it can impact high-skilled jobs. Therefore, according to the IMF, advanced economies have more risks and more opportunities to benefit from AI than emerging market and developing economies.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) warned about the potential disruption in job markets due to the rapid advancement of genAI tools last fall. While genAI could eliminate 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025, the WEF predicts it will also create 97 million new jobs in various fields like big data, machine learning, information security, and digital marketing.
According to a recent study by Thomson Reuters, AI roles constitute 27% of all tech jobs advertised in the UK. Out of 6,073 live tech roles analyzed this month, 1,652 roles specifically required AI skills.
Jobs requiring AI skills are those with AI in their title (e.g., AI trainer, AI content writer) or positions where AI skills are listed as a requirement or primary responsibility. New specialized AI roles have emerged in legal fields, such as “Head of Large Language Models” and “Global Knowledge Systems Architect.”
Thomson Reuters predicts that the demand for AI skills will continue to increase in 2024 as businesses strive to adapt their workforce and processes to leverage the technology’s potential.
The WEF, referring to studies by Jobs of Tomorrow and Deloitte, agrees that genAI will likely generate new jobs. These roles include AI developers, engineers, and scientists working on large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT.
The WEF notes that jobs in this area aren’t limited to programmers designing algorithms. Electrical engineers might find more opportunities due to the demand for custom microchips used to train and run LLMs.
The WEF mentioned Meta as one of the companies exploring custom chips for AI. This effort could assist chip designers in making more progress.
According to Deloitte, chipmakers have developed AI design tools currently employed in creating chips with potential yearly values in the billions of dollars. Deloitte notes that while these tools won’t replace human designers, their strengths in speed and cost-effectiveness enhance chipmakers’ design capabilities significantly.
A potential AI digital divide?
Kevin Macnish, who oversees ethics and sustainability at Sopra Steria, a European business consulting and digital services provider, emphasized that the IMF study highlights the importance of ethics in adopting AI.
“While we are aware of the advantages of AI in the workplace, the technology can also affect the individuals and organizations using it, leading to bias, discrimination, and threats to data privacy,” Macnish said. “As adoption speeds up, it is our responsibility to ensure AI is employed transparently and responsibly, beginning with an ‘ethics by design’ approach in its development and implementation.”
To improve productivity without replacing workers, it’s crucial to educate the public on effectively using AI and genAI tools. This would make the technology more accessible and easier to understand, preventing digital divides from emerging.
According to the IMF, workers who learn how to utilize AI capabilities are likely to experience increased productivity and higher wages. On the other hand, those who don’t adapt may fall behind. Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) indicates that genAI can help less experienced workers enhance their productivity at a faster rate. The IMF also noted that younger workers might find it easier to seize opportunities, while older workers could face challenges in adapting.
The AI glass-half-full view
A recent survey from IT staffing firm Experis found that most employers worldwide are optimistic that emerging technologies like genAI and machine learning will create more jobs than they eliminate.
According to Ger Doyle, Senior Vice President at Experis, many companies are adopting these new technologies and looking to hire or train existing talent to benefit from potential productivity gains. Smart employers understand that embracing digitization and supporting human talent will enhance their readiness for success in this era of rapid technological advancement.
Goldman Sachs estimates that AI could automate up to 29% of computer-related job tasks, along with 28% of work in healthcare practitioner and technical roles. Administrative positions (46%) and legal professions (44%) face the highest exposure to automation. In contrast, physically intensive areas like construction (6%) and maintenance (4%) are less likely to be affected.
According to Mary Alice Vuicic, Chief People Officer at Thomson Reuters, the demand for AI skills is growing rapidly across various professions.
Vuicic stated that AI-focused job requirements have expanded from being limited to now constituting over a quarter of all new IT roles in a short period. As AI capabilities continue to advance, there will be a significant need for upskilling and reskilling, making Adaptability Quotient (AQ) as or more important than IQ and EQ.
Emerging roles, such as AI Integrators, will focus on transforming work design by integrating technology and enhancing human work. Additionally, there will be a demand for reskillers who will train and develop individuals for tasks uniquely suited to humans.
Mary Alice Vuicic mentioned that the new AI roles being developed today will be crucial for the growth, innovation, and efficiency of future businesses.
According to Thomson Reuters, business leaders are increasingly recognizing the value of genAI tools. In a survey, 91% of C-suite board directors revealed that their companies currently use these tools or have plans to implement them within the next 18 months.
The research also highlighted that nearly 90% of respondents anticipate basic AI training becoming a mandatory requirement for all professionals by 2030.
